China Has A Hitch In Their Giddy-Up: They Need Lots More Natural Gas From The U.S.

(THIS ARTICLE IS COURTESY OF ANDY TAI ON GOOGLE PLUS AND FROM FORBES)

 

Energy #Market Moves 

China Will Need More U.S. Natural Gas

I cover oil, gas, power, LNG markets, linking to human development Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
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BEIJING, CHINA – NOVEMBER 09: (CHINA MAINLAND OUT)China President Xi Jinping and wife Peng Liyuan welcome US President Donald Trump and wife Melania come to China for state visit on 09th November, 2017 in Beijing, China.(Photo by TPG/Getty Images)

China will stay the largest incremental natural gas user for as far as we model. To help clear hazy skies and cut CO2 emissions, China must expand the role of cleaner gas in its energy demand portfolio, now at just 6-7% of total supply, versus nearly 30% for the richest economies. Last year alone, China’s gas demand boomed by over 15%, with imports rising by 30%. China just passed Japan to become the largest natural gas importer in the world, although Japan still imports more than twice as much liquefied natural gas (LNG). Key arteries bringing in foreign supplies, such as the China-Myanmar pipeline, however, often sees utilization rates of just 50-60%, due to numerous economical, political, technological, and weather problems.

Data source: EIA

China’s imports of natural gas have been surging.

To be sure, many of China’s LNG sources have issues that open the door for U.S. LNG. For example, Australia has had major domestic gas shortages, Qatar has had an LNG production moratorium and surging domestic demand, and Indonesia needs to keep more of its gas to support a very energy-deprived poor nation. Indeed, it’s quite telling that China’s retaliatory measures against possible U.S tariffs on its goods will NOT include LNG: leadership knows full well the unique value that U.S. LNG brings to the table. Our sales have very flexible contracts (having no rigid destination clauses that restrict resales), short-term contracts, and prices not linked to oil but based on the transparent fundamentals of gas supply and demand. Started in 2016, U.S. LNG has had 60% of its LNG sold on the spot market. Most other suppliers will still need to use less convenient long-term deals to satisfy lenders and fund high cost projects. And we know that we will continue to have plenty of gas to export. In the decades ahead, for every 100 units that U.S. gas demand increases, U.S. gas production will increase 175 units, a 75% surplus for us to export. By 2020, we could control 20-25% of global LNG supply, up from just 8% now. “U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas To China Is A Game-Changer,” with China ranked third in 2017 taking in 15% of U.S. LNG exports.

Data source: IEA

China gets the great majority of its LNG from Australia and Qatar.

Let’s be clear: there’s room for all gas (and oil) exporters in China, the need for imports is surging that fast . After all, supplying China with energy is like trying to fill an olympic size swimming pool with a hose. Don’t worry about somebody else putting another hose on the other side of the pool. Yes, Russia will be a key supplier, but pipeline supplies from Gazprom simply won’t be enough to dim the bright future for U.S. LNG in China. China’s own domestic gas production will continue to increase, but the import necessity can only continue to grow, especially the imported LNG that makes perfect sense in fueling the high demand centers along China’s eastern coast. China’s shale gas production potential is solid but will be limited by a variety of factors, namely a lack of pipelines, difficult geology, remote resources, water shortages, state-controlled prices, and technological barriers (coming from the hesitancy of U.S. shale experts to work with China’s overbearing state-owned enterprises, as well as China’s poor history of protecting intellectual property rights). Today, shale accounts for just 6-8% of China’s total gas production, compared to 85% in the U.SLooking out to just 2030, about 65% of China’s gas demand could need to be met by imports .

Data source: EIA

China’s need for natural gas imports is expected to continue to grow.

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Israel aims to eliminate use of coal, gasoline and diesel by 2030

(THIS ARTICLE IS COURTESY OF THE TIMES OF ISRAEL)

 

Israel aims to eliminate use of coal, gasoline and diesel by 2030

Energy minister to present plan to reduce pollution, strengthen ‘peace axis’ through sole use of natural gas and alternative fuels for energy production and transportation

Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz speaking at an energy conference in Tel Aviv, February 27, 2018 (Dror Sithakol)

Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz speaking at an energy conference in Tel Aviv, February 27, 2018 (Dror Sithakol)

The Energy Ministry forecast Tuesday that within 12 years Israel would be fully reliant on natural gas and alternative fuels for the production of electricity and for transportation.

“We intend to reach a situation in which Israel’s industry will be based on natural gas, and most importantly, transportation in Israel will be based on natural gas or electricity,” Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said at an energy conference in Tel Aviv. “From 2030 onwards, the State of Israel will create alternatives and will no longer allow the import of cars that run on gasoline and diesel fuel.”

Steinitz said he would be submitting a master plan with this vision to the government.

In 2014, electricity was produced through a fifty-fifty split between coal and natural gas. The aim for 2030 is to alter that to 83% natural gas and 17% renewable energy, with “zero pollutants,” Steinitz said.

Illustrative photo of Israeli natural gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea, September 2, 2015. (Flash90)

Already this year, the balance of electricity production will be 71% natural gas, 25%-27% coal, and 2% renewable energy, with the economy transitioning to using coal only for emergency and backup purposes by 2030.

“We have abolished the strategy of diversification of fuels,” Steinitz said, noting that Israel had previously believed that this kind of diversification — using coal and natural gas — was essential for energy security. “We realized we can reach energy security even without this diversification.”

“There is a historic opportunity to transform Israel into one of the first Western countries in which energy is produced with zero pollution and harm to the environment,” he said.

Steinitz said that according to OECD data some 2,500 people die in Israel annually because of air pollution. He added that the controversial natural gas legislation passed two years ago has been a “huge success,” having enabled the development of Leviathan, Israel’s largest natural gas field, which is expected to come online next year. The one and a half-year holdup in the development of Leviathan caused by delays in passing the gas regulations cost Israel some $20 billion, he said.

The development of the field allowed Israel to sign its “most significant export deals” with neighboring Egypt and Jordan since the signing of peace accords with these nations, he said.

Earlier this month, the partners in the Tamar and Leviathan offshore natural gas fields said they signed deals to export 64 billion cubic meters of gas to the Egyptian firm Dolphinus over a 10-year period. In September 2016, Jordan struck a deal to buy 8.5 million cubic meters of Israeli gas per day over 15 years, a deal estimated to be worth $10 billion.

“This strengthens the peace axis,” Steinitz said. “It is a geopolitical success that has been made possible because of natural gas.”

Israel, a country with scarce natural resources, discovered offshore natural gas fields that may enable it to achieve energy independence and become an exporter of natural gas. The Tamar gas field was discovered in 2009 and started production in 2013, while the Leviathan field — the largest deep water natural gas field discovered in the world in the past decade — was discovered in 2010 and is expected to start production in 2019.

Steinitz was speaking at a conference organized by the Israel Institute for Energy and Environment that dealt with the potential of and challenges to Israel’s natural gas industry.

Steinitz and other speakers were heckled by a group protesting against the planned Leviathan rig, which they say will be set up just 10 kilometers off the northern shore and will cause pollution and billions of dollars’ worth of environmental damage.

Protesters demonstrating outside an energy conference in Tel Aviv against setting up a gas rig 10 kilometers from Israel’s shores, February 27, 2018 (Shoshanna Solomon/Times of Israel)

“Instead of a proposed rig, the companies should be setting up a floating production storage and offloading facility above the rig, not close to the shore of Dor Beach,” said protest head Yoni Sapir.

In addition, a gas-processing to be set up on land could pollute local water sources, said Eli Budman, a toxicologist who was protesting outside the hotel.

Steinitz dismissed them as “not in my backyard” protesters who were ignorant of the issues. “We will not submit to pressure by anyone. We are convinced we are doing the right things for the future of Israel,” he declared.

An environmental heckler disrupting the speech of Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz at an energy conference in Tel Aviv; 27 Feb. 2018 (Shoshanna Solomon/Times of Israel)

Responding to the demonstrators, Environment Minister Ze’ev Elkin said Israel cannot both cut its consumption of coal and stall development of the natural gas industry. “We can’t go in both directions,” he said.

The ministry was prioritizing the reduction of pollution, he said, and natural gas had to play its part as soon as possible. “Pollution is the number one environmental challenge of Israel,” he said. “The progress of Leviathan is of environmental interest to Israel.”

At the conference Yona Fogel, the CEO of Paz Oil Company Ltd. an oil refiner, said the price of natural gas in Israel as set by the agreement reached by government and the producers of the gas was too high. “There is a market failure here,” he said. Paz’s two plants, in Haifa and Alon Tavor, were ready to receive natural gas but “the gap between implementation and desire” was very high, he said.

Mathios Rigas, CEO of Energean Oil & Gas, a Greek oil and gas explorer that won the license to develop and operate the smaller Karish and Tanin offshore natural gas fields — which are estimated to have reserves of 2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and are earmarked to supply fuel to Israel and compete with Tamar and Leviathan — said he expects drilling at the fields to start in 2019 and supply of gas to start in the first quarter of 2021. Energean will be investing some $1.6 billion in the development of the fields, he said, and has already raised the funds to manage the project, he said.

Yossi Abu, the CEO of Delek Drilling LP, a unit of Delek Group Ltd., which together with Noble Energy Inc. is a partner in the Tamar and Leviathan fields, said that he expects more deals with Egypt following the one with Dolphinus signed earlier this month. Egypt is estimated to need some 20 to 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year for the next decade, he said, and this presents an opportunity for Israel.

The pipeline infrastructure already in place will allow Leviathan to supply gas to Egypt and Jordan when production starts in the fourth quarter of 2019, he said, and will allow Israel to be part of a regional grid connected to the two Arab countries, as opposed to the energy island it has been until now.

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It’s Called ‘Trickle Up’ Economics

IT’S CALLED ‘TRICKLE UP’ ECONOMICS

     

(1-9-2015)

    These days we are again hearing the old term in politics that I first heard from the Reagan era, people in Washington call it the Trickle Down Theory. The concept is being practiced by both parties, though they would probably deny it. Today these people tend to use the words “Stimulus Package”. If you remember, We tried this approach shortly before he (W) got out of office. Then came Mr. Obama, he tried his own version of a stimulus package, bailing out the banks and Wall Street, the very people who caused almost all of the problems in the first place. The idea of this scam was to strengthen our country’s financial base from the top down. You see, neither party “get’s it”, you give the top one percent all the financial means and they just hold onto it. I have a question for you, how many of We The People have been able to get a loan, for personal or for small or medium size businesses since the banks got “our” money handed to them? Do you remember just a couple of months ago Mr. Obama was caught on camera at some conference table filled with his cronies and he said in reference of his stimulus package, “I guess that the country wasn’t as shovel ready as we had thought” and he and his cronies had a good laugh about it.

    Now Mr. Obama is prancing out another stimulus package under the cloak of it creating jobs in our country for our people. Odd isn’t it, the things these politicians try just before an election season fires up? Mr. Obama, and the Congress should have taken the other stimulus package a couple of years ago and put Americans to work then. I am a long haul truck driver by trade, a person sees and hears many things as we go around the country from the people and the local radio stations. Our nation’s roads and bridges are in lousy condition all over the country. Most all of our big cities are completely falling apart, above ground and below them. If the stimulus money from the past had been used to rebuild our country from the inside, which would have put many people to work all over our country. As you go around the country you see things like all these oil wells that are capped, even in the oil fields of West Texas. We have found lots of oil in Wyoming and the Dakotas, but as soon as they are drilled, there capped. You see, this country doesn’t have enough refineries to produce the products and we don’t have anywhere near enough storage facilities to store all the oil we already have here in our own country. These days we hear a lot about clean coal technologies and that we are the Saudi Arabia of Natural gas. Why are we selling oil abroad? People, why are we giving billions to people who use that money to finance means to kill all of us?

    Here is the simple economics behind this writing, if the money had been given out through work programs, the people of America would have been working several years ago, on good full-time jobs for good pay. Then the people would not have been losing their homes. People would have been able to have purchasing power which would have stimulated our economy putting even more people back to work. If this had happened, the Banks would have had earned a lot of money from the bottom up and the governments at all levels would have been reaping the benefits of increased tax revenue which would have keep our civil servants employed. What our country needs are politicians who are able to realize that there is nothing wrong if the bottom 99% have 95% of the money going through their hands. Then the top 1% of the population would still be getting about 5%, this would still make that small and very important group of people very, very wealthy. They are very important because they are the risk takers who have the ability to create many of our nation’s jobs, these people must be well compensated, five for one is very nice compensation. Friends, this is what I call, Trickle Up Economics.

 

                                                                                  Thank you for your time,

                                                                                  oldpoet56   

    

The West’s largest coal-fired power plant is closing. Not even Trump can save it

(THIS ARTICLE IS COURTESY OF THE WASHINGTON POST)

The West’s largest coal-fired power plant is closing. Not even Trump can save it

February 14 at 6:51 PM

As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump promised to help revive the struggling coal industry.

It’s looking like a tough promise to keep.

In the past three weeks, owners of two of the nation’s biggest coal-fired power plants have announced plans to shut them down, potentially idling hundreds of workers. One plant in Arizona is the largest coal-fired facility in the western United States.

“[We’re] bringing back jobs, big league,” President Trump said Tuesday after signing legislation that would scrap requirements for natural resources companies to disclose payments to foreign governments. “We’re bringing them back at the plant level. We’re bringing them back at the mine level. The energy jobs are coming back.”

Yet even with his efforts to roll back Obama-era energy regulations, a lot of coal jobs won’t ever return, mainly because of harsh economic realities.

Case in point: The decision this week by the utilities that own the Navajo Generating Station outside Page, Ariz., to decommission the plant at the end of 2019, decades earlier than expected.

The 2,250-megawatt plant has faced increasing financial pressure in the face of record-low natural gas prices, which have made it more expensive to produce electricity at the facility than to purchase it from cheaper sources.

“The utility owners do not make this decision lightly,” said Mike Hummel, deputy general manager of Salt River Project, which operates the plant and owns it along with several utility companies and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

“NGS and its employees are one reason why this region, the state of Arizona and the Phoenix metropolitan area have been able to grow and thrive,” he added in a statement. “However, [its owners have] an obligation to provide low-cost service to our more than 1 million customers, and the higher cost of operating NGS would be borne by our customers.”

Environmental activists welcomed the prospect of closing the plant, one of the biggest polluters in the country. The Navajo Generating Station was third on a 2014 Environmental Protection Agency list of major carbon-emitting facilities.

But its closure would deal its community a significant economic blow. Between the plant itself and the Kayenta Mine — located roughly 80 miles away, it provides all the coal for the generating station — nearly 800 workers could find themselves out of work. Many are members of the Navajo and Hopi tribes, which also receive royalties from the plant. In their announcement, the plant’s owners said the tribes or others could still step in to operate the facility beyond 2019.

Less than three weeks ago, Dayton Power and Light reached an agreement with the Sierra Club to close its Killen and Stuart coal-fired power plants in Ohio due to economic reasons. The plants would close in June 2018, the company and nonprofit said.

The Stuart plant, built in the early 1970s, has a capacity of 2,440 megawatts. The Killen plant, built-in 1982, has a capacity of 666 megawatts.

Dayton Power and Light submitted a closure plan for approval by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. The utility said it would develop solar and wind projects generating at least 300 megawatts of power no later than 2022. It also proposed a variety of energy-efficiency steps and grid improvements.

The Sierra Club applauded the moves, which it said would save $37 million a year in health-care costs by avoiding more than 1,200 asthma attacks, 100 heart attacks and nearly 100 deaths linked to the two plants’ emissions. Both facilities are among the largest sources of pollution in the United States, affecting residents as far away as the Atlantic coast.

“The economics of coal are increasingly bad,” said Bruce Nilles, a Sierra Club lawyer. State governments and utilities commissions “will do a lot to prop up” ailing plants, he said, but “it gets increasingly expensive.”

Dayton Power and Light is a subsidiary of Virginia-based AES Corp.

Trump’s ability to save the Navajo plant and others like it is limited, despite his rhetoric. Even if his administration follows through on its promises to relax regulations on the coal industry, those changes aren’t likely to change coal’s fading market.

And if the owners of coal-fired plants lose money when they operate their facilities, keeping them running makes little economic sense.

Why Is The American Government Committing Treason Against It’s Own People?

 

There are going to be somethings that some folks will be mad at me for insinuating such things about our government, some will call me unpatriotic for saying such a thing. Well, honestly, I think that the vast majority of the American people aren’t quite as naive as we were 50 years ago, or even say, one year ago.  I know that I am not the wisest human being to ever walk this planet but I have spent most of my 60 years trying to pay attention to reality. We all know by now that there are good and bad people in every profession. There are some professions that we all believe or joke about as being dirty whether it be so or not, like door to door magazine salesmen, used car dealers, bankers, insurance salesmen, NSA personnel, politicians, and oil executives. I have tried to always be completely truthful in everything I write on this site, always to the best of my knowledge and ability, and that is what I am going to do in this article.

Treason, yes treason, that is what I said. The first duty of any government is to keep its people safe. If they forsake this most basic vow, they are guilty of treason against their own people and this is what has been going on now for a very long time. Nothing this bad can last forever without horrible consequences and at any moment all of our lives can be changed in a flash. Back in 1980 I worked at a major U.S. oil company headquarters in Houston Texas in the executive protection field, I learned there just how easily major politicians can be bought and paid for with absolutely no regard for the welfare of the country by either the politician or the company. These actions I witnessed and heard sickened me to my core so I quit and moved many states away from that job.  Some of the things I heard there would make you mad, sick, or just laugh at some of the pure stupidity and how out of touch with reality they could be there in their ivory towers.

For many years I have traveled all over the United States many, many, times. I am going to tell you some of the things I have seen and that I know are absolute truth. When you travel through west Texas and you go through the Midland, Odessa area on interstate 20 you are going through the Permian Basin. This is where the best crude oil in the world is at, it is the oil that the rest of the world’s oil is judged by, this is the land that the Bush family worked, lived, and prospered in. If you look out in the fields on each side of the highway especially if you travel at night you will occasionally see vertical lights out in the fields, these are oil drilling rigs digging for the black gold. Does it make any sense to still be drilling? Most folks would say yes I think. But now, if you travel west Texas, Oklahoma, California, Wyoming, or North or South Dakota you will see something that might surprise you, at least at a minimum, even in west Texas, half or more of all the pump jacks are turned off and the new holes that get dug are then capped.

Now, do you ask why? Good question, now I am going to start telling you why I think that you and I and everyone in our country are having our safety sold out, it’s all about money and greed folks. I have some friends in these High Plains areas who work in these fields and have been told the same thing goes on up there, wells get dug, then capped. You probably know of this oil pipeline that Canada and some U.S. companies want to lay pipe for from Canada down to the Gulf Coast but the government won’t approve it because environmental organizations don’t want it running through sensitive land areas in places like Nebraska. Here is a thought, I know for a fact that there are oil refineries in states like Wyoming and Montana, why does the oil pipeline have any need to go all the way to the Gulf Coast, is it so the oil companies can export it? We have been told for decades now that we don’t have the oil  storage or refining capabilities that are needed. Why not? Create more jobs in these western states, build a lot more storage areas and the needed amount of oil refineries there to handle the new oil we are finding on our own land and if Canada want’s to run this joint pipeline adventure into the States there is plenty of unused government land to build these facilities on. These things should have been done many years ago for the reason of National Security, your security, my security, and the security of all of our families have been at stake for years, but we were then and now still being sold out.

Back as far as the early seventies our people learned that we are not and island unto our selves, that events outside of our borders can badly harm us. With the OPEC oil embargo OPEC countries cut way back on what they would sell us because we dared to back Israel. What has our government done to correct this national security issue? What is our current government doing now to correct this major safety issue? President Obama won’t approve the Canadian pipeline, and he has all but killed the coal industry and the nuclear industry is being phased out, plus there are many, many oil fields that the government won’t give drilling permits for. Where are the new refineries and storage units for all the oil we are producing and the gas we are producing on our own shores, where are they? I know that oil and gas and coal are not the only forms or energy we use in our country, but they are a huge part of it at this time. The U.S. Department of Energy say’s that in 2012 we imported 40% of the oil we consume at this time, 40% folks. In this country we have seen when we  have a 2% down tick in the economy it throws us into a deep recession, at best. Folks, what would happen in this country if say even 30% of that 40% were shut off from us, that would be 12% loss. What would that do to our economy, to everyone’s lives, our jobs, our ability to get to them, also what would the cost of a gallon of gas be then?

If we the people are not the first concern for every one in our government, why not? Now I am going to spout a few figures to you that come from the Independent Statistics and Analyst Department of the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy, from one of their web sites. We (oil companies) are exporting these following items, 1) Crude Oil 2) Crude Oil Products 3) Finished Motor Gasoline 4) Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel 5) Distillate Fuel Oil 6) Residual Fuel Oil 7) Propane/Polypropylene 8) here it just said “oil-oils”.  People, why is our government allowing the sale of any of this outside of our own borders? Their own stats say that we are importing 7.4 M.M.B.D. of crude oil while at the same time we are exporting 1.M.M.B.D., people, why is this being allowed. In the “Interest of National Security” these things could be stopped and corrected, why aren’t they? Money, greed, treason?

There are many real things that could have been done already to cut down on our imports while they were building the refineries and storage facilities that are needed. Any secure nation is not secure unless it is 100% self-sufficient in its energy requirements with large energy stock piles in case of any type of attack on that country. Folks, we are nowhere near being in a safe zone. Another part of this issue is the fact that we are importing energy from countries that hate us and who are supporting militant groups so that they can attack and kill us all. How ignorant is it that you give the people who want nothing more than to kill you the weapons and the bullets to do it with? That’s what we are doing and have been doing  for decades now, why is our government past and present trying to get us all killed? Is the answer the same as what I witnessed while working for that major oil company in Houston? Is it all about power, and greed and to hell with the people? Folks, it does seem that way to me.

One other quick issue I want to touch on before I close, again the government could have used the “for national security, or at least, for the good of the country” slogan to force these issues, and they do have the power to do exactly that in time of emergencies . Question is, why wait until you have the emergency before you make any plans or take the needed steps to survive the emergency? One of the things the government could have/should be enforcing is much more stringent MPG requirements for at least the past forty years. They have done some work toward it but not nearly enough. Think how much less fuel imports would be if all new cars sold in America were required to get 40 MPG in town and out, no exceptions, and all Pickups and SUV’s were required to get a minimum of 30 MPG in town and out. Why is it not a forced issue that every new vehicle made or sold in America has to be a Hybrid? These things can be done and should have been forced on the car makers decades ago. Would there have to be changes in the design and size of the units, of course. But think about it, if these laws were in effect now and our units were getting these MPG’s now how much of a savings would all of us have at the pump? Think of all the other places that money could be spent to improve our life styles and at the same time stimulate our economy. I will close now with this one very major issue. Our import export deficit is now over a trillion dollars a year and a huge portion is from imported energy. This policy is stupid and dangerous to every one of us. Our governments policies not only give our enemies the weapons they use to kills us with but in so doing, this export deficit is killing the value of our currency making the things we can buy much more expensive because the dollar is so down graded, and this hurts every one of us. So again, why the heck is our government putting every ones livelihood and lives at such risk? Is it as simple as power and greed?  Doesn’t it have to be something like that because or political and industrial complex leaders couldn’t possibly simply be this stupid could they?

As I said earlier in this article, there are good and bad people in every occupation, even politics. When I lived in northern Illinois back 40 odd years ago I had a real good Congressman, a man named John Anderson and I am blessed to have had an excellent Congressman in east Tennessee, a man named M.D. Phil Roe. I have had contacts with Congressman Roe a few times and I beg you, if you have a good Congressman or Senator, state or federal, please try to communicate these concerns to them before we either end up with a totally crippled country, or were all dead.

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