CNT

247 –  Research conducted by the MDA institute for the National Transportation Confederation (CNT) shows that former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is held as political prisoner on April 7 in Curitiba, continues to lead the preference of the majority of Brazilian voters .

In the stimulated modality, Lula 32.4%, Jair Bolsonaro 16.7%, Marina Silva 7.6%, Ciro Gomes 5.4%, Geraldo Alckmin 4.0%, Álvaro Dias 2.5%, Fernando Collor 0.9% %, Michel Temer 0,9%, Guilherme Boulos 0,5%, Manuela D’Ávila 0,5%, João Amoêdo 0,4%, Flávio Rocha 0,4%, Henrique Meirelles 0,3%, Rodrigo Maia 0, 2%, Paulo Rabello de Castro 0.1%, White / Nil 18.0%, Undecided 8.7%.

Check out the simulations for the second round, where Lula wins in all:

SCENARIO 1: Lula 44.9%, Geraldo Alckmin 19.6%, White / Null: 30.0%, 
Undecided: 5.5%.

SCENARIO 2: Lula 45.7%, Jair Bolsonaro 25.9%, White / Null: 23.3%, 
Undecided: 5.1%.

SCENARIO 3: Lula 47.1%, Henrique Meirelles 13.3%, White / Null: 33.0%, 
Undecided: 6.6%.

SCENARIO 4: Lula 44.4%, Marina Silva 21.0%, White / Null: 29.3%, 
Undecided: 5.3%.

SCENARIO 5: Lula 49.0%, Michel Temer 8.3%, White / Null: 37.3%, 
Undecided: 5.4%.

The CNT / MDA Survey heard 2,002 people in 137 counties in 25 Federative Units of the five regions of the country.

Check the research in full .

Read below the material released by the CNT:

The 136th CNT / MDA Survey, held May 9-12, 2018 and released by the CNT (National Confederation of Transport) on May 14, addresses the 2018 elections, bringing the preferences of the interviewees to the first and second scenarios voting shifts. The survey also presents the ideal characteristics of the candidates in the opinion of the interviewees, in addition to their voting potential.

The research also deals with topics such as the arrest of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva; the Justice in Brazil; confidence in institutions; fake news and the World Cup. It also brings federal government assessments and the personal performance of President Michel Temer and assessments of state and municipal governments.

A total of 2,002 people were heard in 137 municipalities of 25 Federative Units from the five regions. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points with 95% confidence level. The research is registered in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), with the number BR-09430/2018.

• Government evaluation

Federal government: The evaluation of the government of President Michel Temer is positive for 4.3% of the interviewees, against 71.2% of negative evaluation. For 21.8%, the evaluation is regular and 2.7% did not know what to say. The approval of the president’s personal performance reached 9.7% against 82.5% disapproval, in addition to 7.8% who could not comment.

State government: 2.9% evaluate the governor of their state as great. 16.6% as good; 33.2% as regular, 14.8% as bad and 26.1% as bad.

Municipal government: 5.1% evaluate the mayor of their city as great. 21.3% as good, 32.2% as regular, 12.8% as bad and 24.2% as bad.

• Expectation (for the next 6 months)

Employment: will improve: 21.7%, will get worse: 31.5%, will stay the same: 43.4% 
Monthly income: will increase: 20.6%, will decrease: 16.5%, will stay the same: 59 , 3% 
Health: will improve: 18.5%, will get worse: 35.6%, will stay the same: 42.9% 
Education: will improve: 21.0%, will get worse: 28.8%, will stay the same : 46.6% 
Public safety: it will improve: 17.9%, it will get worse: 41.9%, it will stay the same: 37.2%

• Presidential election 2018

1st shift: SPONTANEOUS voting intention

Lula: 18,6% 
Jair Bolsonaro: 12,4% 
Ciro Gomes: 1,7% 
Marina Silva: 1,3% 
Geraldo Alckmin: 1,2% 
Joaquim Barbosa: 1,0% 
Álvaro Dias: 0,9% 
Others: 1.8% 
White / Null: 21.4% 
Undecided: 39.6%

1st shift: Intention to vote STIMULATED

SCENARIO 1: Lula 32.4%, Jair Bolsonaro 16.7%, Marina Silva 7.6%, 
Ciro Gomes 5.4%, Geraldo Alckmin 4.0%, Álvaro Dias 2.5%, Fernando Collor 0.9% , Michel Temer 0.9%, Guilherme Boulos 0.5%, Manuela D’Ávila 0.5%, João Amoêdo 0.4%, Flávio Rocha 0.4%, Henrique Meirelles 0.3%, Rodrigo Maia 0.2% %, Paulo Rabello de Castro 0.1%, White / Nil 18.0%, Undecided 8.7%.

SCENARIO 2: Jair Bolsonaro 18.3%, Marina Silva 11.2%, Ciro Gomes 9.0%, Geraldo Alckmin 5.3%, Álvaro Dias 3.0%, Fernando Haddad 2.3%, Fernando Collor 1.4 %, Manuela D’Ávila 0.9%, Guilherme Boulos 0.6%, João Amoêdo 0.6%, Henrique Meirelles 0.5%, Flávio Rocha 0.4%, Rodrigo Maia 0.4%, Paulo Rabello de Castro 0.1%, White / Nil 29.6%, Undecided 16.1%.

SCENARIO 3: Jair Bolsonaro 19.7%, Marina Silva 15.1%, Ciro Gomes 11.1%, Geraldo Alckmin 8.1%, Fernando Haddad 3.8%, White / Nil 30.1%, Undecided 12.1% %.

SCENARIO 4: Jair Bolsonaro 20.7%, Marina Silva 16.4%, Ciro Gomes 12.0%, Fernando Haddad 4.4%, Henrique Meirelles 1.4%, White / Nil 31.7%, Undecided 13.4% %.

2nd shift: Intention to vote STIMULATED

SCENARIO 1: Lula 44.9%, Geraldo Alckmin 19.6%, White / Null: 30.0%, 
Undecided: 5.5%.

SCENARIO 2: Lula 45.7%, Jair Bolsonaro 25.9%, White / Null: 23.3%, 
Undecided: 5.1%.

SCENARIO 3: Lula 47.1%, Henrique Meirelles 13.3%, White / Null: 33.0%, 
Undecided: 6.6%.

SCENARIO 4: Lula 44.4%, Marina Silva 21.0%, White / Null: 29.3%, 
Undecided: 5.3%.

SCENARIO 5: Lula 49.0%, Michel Temer 8.3%, White / Null: 37.3%, 
Undecided: 5.4%.

SCENARIO 6: Jair Bolsonaro 28.2%, Ciro Gomes 24.2%, White / Null: 37.8%, 
Undecided: 9.8%.

SCENARIO 7: Jair Bolsonaro 27.8%, Geraldo Alckmin 20.2%, White / Null: 42.5%, 
Undecided: 9.5%.

SCENARIO 8: Jair Bolsonaro 31.5%, Fernando Haddad 14.0%, White / Null: 43.4%, 
Undecided: 11.1%.

SCENARIO 9: Jair Bolsonaro 30.8%, Henrique Meirelles 11.7%, White / Nil: 46.3%, 
Undecided: 11.2%.

SCENARIO 10: Marina Silva 27.2%, Jair Bolsonaro 27.2%, White / Null: 37.8%, 
Undecided: 7.8%.

SCENARIO 11: Jair Bolsonaro 34.7%, Michel Temer 5.3%, White / Null: 49.5%, 
Undecided: 10.5%.

SCENARIO 12: Ciro Gomes 20.9%, Geraldo Alckmin 20.4%, White / Null: 48.1%, 
Undecided: 10.6%.

SCENARIO 13: Geraldo Alckmin 25.0%, Fernando Haddad 10.0%, White / Null: 53.2%, Undecided: 11.8%.

SCENARIO 14: Marina Silva 26.6%, Geraldo Alckmin 18.9%, White / Null: 46.0%, 
Undecided: 8.5%.

SCENARIO 15: Ciro Gomes 25.7%, Henrique Meirelles 9.0%, White / Null: 52.6%, 
Undecided: 12.7%.

SCENARIO 16: Ciro Gomes 30.4%, Michel Temer 5.6%, White / Null: 52.9%, 
Undecided: 11.1%.

VOTING LIMIT – PRESIDENCY OF THE REPUBLIC

CIRO GOMES: is the only one to vote (2.9%); is a candidate who could vote (31.7%); would not vote for him at all (46.4%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (15.3%).

FERNANDO HADDAD: is the only one to vote (0.9%); is a candidate who could vote (15.7%); he would not vote for him at all (46.1%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (34,1%).

GERALDO ALCKMIN: is the only one to vote (1.6%); is a candidate who could vote (30.3%); would not vote for him at all (55.9%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (8.4%).

HENRIQUE MEIRELLES: is the only one to vote (0.2%); is a candidate who could vote (14.1%); would not vote for him at all (48.8%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (33.5%).

JAIR BOLSONARO: is the only one that would vote (13.1%); is a candidate who could vote (22.1%); would not vote for him at all (52.8%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (9.3%).

LULA: is the only one that would vote (25.6%); is a candidate who could vote (25.0%); would not vote for him at all (46.8%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (0.6%).

MARINA SILVA: is the only one that would vote (4.5%); is a candidate who could vote (33.1%); he would not vote for him at all (56.5%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (2.9%).

MICHEL TEMER: is the only one to vote (0.3%); is a candidate who could vote (7.8%); would not vote for him at all (87.8%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (1.6%).

RODRIGO MAIA: is the only one that would vote (0.1%); is a candidate who could vote (7.0%); would not vote for him at all (55.6%); do not know / do not know who is / has never heard (34,2%).

CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS

• For 65.6% of the interviewees, the honesty of the candidate for president of the Republic will be the main factor taken into account; 47.7% will consider new proposals for Brazil; 26.4%, the life trajectory; 12.1% will consider whether the candidate is new in the political environment; 5.9% the political party to which the candidate belongs; 3.4% if it is business.

CONDEMNATION OF FORMER PRESIDENT LULA

• 51.0% consider that the arrest of former President Lula is fair. 
• 49.9% do not believe that former President Lula will contest the elections after being convicted in the lower court, while 40.8% believe that former President Lula will contest the elections, even after being convicted in the lower court .

JUSTICE IN BRAZIL

• The evaluation of the performance of Justice in Brazil is negative for 55.7% (bad or bad) of the interviewees. 33.6% evaluate the Justice as being regular and 8.8% of the interviewees evaluate that the Justice action in Brazil is positive (great or good).

• 52.8% consider the judiciary unreliable; 36.5% unreliable; and 6.4% very reliable.

• For 90.3%, the Brazilian courts do not act equally for all. Another 6.1% consider that it acts equally.

• Of the respondents, 44.3% believe that, even after the recent actions of Justice in Operation Lava Jato, corruption will continue in the same proportion in Brazil. Meanwhile, 30.7% estimate that corruption will decrease and 17.3% believe it will increase.

TRUST IN THE INSTITUTIONS

• The most reliable institution, according to those interviewed, is the Church (40.1%). The following are the Armed Forces (16.2%), Justice (8.6%), Press (5.0%), Police (4.0%), Federal Government (2.2%), National Congress 0.6%) and Political Parties (0.2%).

FAKE NEWS AND INFORMATION

• 49.0% of respondents said they use the internet (social networks, portals or message applications such as WhatsApp) every day to see news; 9.1% use the network several days a week; 6.1%, few times a month; 7.2% rarely. 28.6% do not use the World Wide Web to get information.

• Regarding the subjects interviewed the most, 42.5% cite entertainment / soap opera / variety; 28.2% highlight politics; 20.6% sports; 15.0% economy / finances; 12.4% education / work; 11.2% cities; 10.6% health; 3.7% travel / tourism.

• 81.4% say they believe in some and distrust other news they see on the internet. 4.5% say they believe all the information, while the rest (13.8%) say they do not believe any news.

• When they are in doubt about the veracity of some news they see on the internet, 31.5% say they have the habit of always checking if the information is true. 45.4% only check a few times and 22.7% say they do not have this custom.

• 68.2% have heard about the existence of fake news, called fake news.

WORLD CUP

• 42.0% are not interested in the Russian World Cup. 27.0% are very interested and 30.7% are little interested. 
• 63.9% intend to follow the matches of the World Cup. 
• The main means by which respondents intend to follow the matches of the World Cup is TV (96.8%). Then there are internet (1.7%), radio (0.3%) and newspaper (0.1%). 
• World Cup favorites are Brazil (51.9%), Germany (8.1%), Argentina (1.3%), Spain (1.0%) and Brazil France (0.9%).

CONCLUSION

The results of the 136th CNT / MDA Survey show a negative perception of Michel Temer’s government, both for the evaluation of his government and his personal approval, indicating an irreversible electoral situation.

The population’s pessimism regarding job generation, monthly income, health, education and security for the next six months shows an increase in relation to the last survey.

The intention to vote for the presidential election in 2018 signals maintaining the leadership of former President Lula in the first round scenario and in all the second round simulations. For the first round simulations that exclude the former president from the list of candidates, Jair Bolsonaro leads, with the second place being played by Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes.

In the second round simulations without former president Lula, Jair Bolsonaro ties technically with Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes, overcoming the other candidates.

There is a high percentage of white, null and undecided votes, especially in scenarios without the former president, indicating that the voter is still in search of a name that deserves his vote. The most important characteristics for the candidate’s choice are honesty, presentation of new proposals for Brazil and their political trajectory.

In relation to Justice, a predominantly negative evaluation is observed, with a low degree of confidence and a strong perception that it does not act equally for all people.

Most of the population uses the internet frequently for news reading. For this group, the larger portion mistrusts part of the information they receive and usually checks the truth.